Civilization Transition Model
Transitions occur when enabling conditions allow a new core capability to scale, producing social reorganization, major consequences, and relocated bottlenecks that set up the next transition.
Frameworks
Working models
Frameworks are structured lenses, not settled doctrine. Status labels indicate maturity—and none claim final authority.
6 frameworksWorking Model · 1Early Hypothesis · 3Research In Progress · 2
Working Model
1 framework
Models with enough internal structure to use, still open to revision.
Early Hypothesis
3 frameworks
Early formulations that should be treated as provisional.
Technology-to-Capability Model
A technology raises civilizational capability only through a conversion chain: affordance → complementarity (skills/institutions) → interface quality → normal performance → degraded-condition performance → optionality retained.
Civilization Operating System
A civilization OS is the stack of norms, institutions, and knowledge protocols that schedules goals, authenticates claims, allocates rights, and manages updates—often imperfectly.
Civilization Capability Stack
Civilizations can be analyzed as interacting layers: energy capture, material conversion, information storage, coordination, sense-making, and long-horizon stewardship. Transitions thicken or rewrite layers.
Research In Progress
2 frameworks
Active construction—expect incomplete edges.
Human Capability Map
Map human capabilities across perception, modeling, craft, care, judgment, coordination, and meaning-making—then track exposure to automation versus need for human stewardship.
Progress Engine
A progress engine requires generation of useful novelty, selection among alternatives, retention of gains, and recombination—each opposed by capture, dogma, decay, and war.